SBI Q1 results 2024: State Bank of India, India’s biggest state-owned bank, will likely report flat net profit in the April-June quarter (Q1) of the current financial year 2024-25 (FY25).
As per six brokerage estimates, SBI Q1 profit may move in the range of -4 per cent to +2 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y). In absolute terms, Q1FY25 net profit may vary from Rs 16,150.9 crore to Rs 17,190.7 crore.
In Q1FY24, net profit was Rs 16,884.3 crore, while it was Rs 20,698.4 crore in Q4FY24.
State Bank of India (SBI) is scheduled to report its June quarter (Q1 FY25) results on Saturday, August 3 2024.
What to expect from SBI Q1 results 2024-25:
Nomura
Nomura expects SBI’s Q1 profit to rise marginally by 1 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 17,010 crore, capped by 9 per cent Y-o-Y rise in net interest income of Rs 42,280 crore.
Sequentially, this would be an 18 per cent slide in SBI’s profit and a 2 per cent growth in NII.
It also sees SBI’s pre-provision profit (PPOP) at Rs 25,130 crore, down 1 per cent Y-o-Y from Rs 25,300 crore and 13 per cent from Rs 28,750 crore.
On the business side, SBI’s Q1 FY25 loan book is pegged at Rs 37.59 trillion, up 16 per cent Y-o-Y (Rs 32.35 trillion) and 1 per cent Q-o-Q (Rs 37.04 trillion).
Deposits, meanwhile, are seen at Rs 50.39 trillion, up 11 per cent Y-o-Y (Rs 45.32 trillion) and 2 per cent Q-o-Q (Rs 49.16 trillion).
Prabhudas Lilladher
Unlike Nomura, Prabhudas Lilladher expects SBI’s Q1 profit to fall 4.3 per cent Y-o-Y/22 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 16,151 crore.
This, the brokerage estimated, would be on the back of just 5 per cent Y-o-Y growth in NII (Rs 40,904.8 crore), coupled with a 4 per cent Y-o-Y fall in PPOP (Rs 24,350 crore).
Over the March quarter, this would be around 2 per cent decline in NII and 15 per cent in PPOP.
SBI’s NII was Rs 38,905 crore in Q1FY24 and Rs 41,655.2 crore in Q4FY24.
“NII is expected to contract by 1.8 per cent Q-o-Q with loan growth seen at 1 per cent. Margins could fall by 7bps sequentially due to lower yields and flat cost of funds. That apart, PPOP could decline sharply by 15.3 per cent Q-o-Q on account of decline in Other income, partially offset by decline in operating expenses,” the brokerage said.
Prabhudas Lilladher expects SBI’s provisions to surge by 68 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 2,700 crore, from Rs 1,609.8 crore, and by 7.9 per cent Y-o-Y from Rs 2,501.3 crore.
Asset quality in terms of gross non-performing assets (GNPA) will likely worsen by 4 bps Q-o-Q to 2.28 per cent while credit cost is expected to increase by 11 bps to 0.29 per cent.
Emkay Global
Emkay Global expects SBI’s credit growth to be strong in Q1, even as rate hikes could lead to some softness in margins.
Slippages, it said, could be seasonally higher Q-o-Q due to agri stress, with recovery to be mid-to-moderate.
It pegs NII at Rs 42,118.3 crore, PPOP at Rs 26,013 crore, and net profit at Rs 17,190.7 crore.
ICICI Securities
ICICI Securities expects SBI to sustain around 16 per cent YoY loan growth at Rs 37.52 trillion, though it would be soft at less than 2 per cent on a Q-o-Q basis. Due to seasonality, the brokerage also expects around 15bps Q-o-Q dip in NIM at 3.14 per cent.
Further, ICICI Securities models gross slippages to rise to 0.9 per cent in Q1FY25 as against 0.4 per cent Q-o-Q, but similar to the 1 per cent Y-o-Y figure.
Recovery/upgrades as well as write-offs, it said, are likely to be lower due to usual seasonality with most of the recovery/upgrades likely granular in nature.
“However, despite seasonal pressure on NIM/slippages, we estimate SBI to deliver strong return on asset (RoA) at 1.1 per cent for the quarter,” ICICI Securities added.
In absolute terms, it forecasts slippages at Rs 8,500 crore.
“As wage bipartite provisions are fully done, we expect easing pressure on staff costs for SBI. Overall opex is likely to soften a bit, but would still remain higher than loan growth. Post the implementation of new treasury norms, we expect slower treasury gains especially at SBI,” it added.
Against this, PPOP is seen at Rs 25,036.2 crore (down 13 per cent Q-o-Q/1 per cent Y-o-Y), and net profit is seen at Rs 16,677.1 crore (down 19.4 per cent Q-o-Q/1.2 per cent Y-o-Y).
Sharekhan
Amid 16 per cent Y-o-Y projected loan growth, NII is forecasted at Rs 41,816 crore (up 7.5 per cent Y-o-Y/0.4 per cent Q-o-Q).
PPOP is seen rising 1.4 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 25,661 crore, while net profit may all by 2 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 16,577 crore, it said.
“Asset quality is expected to remain stable except for agri book. Key monitorable would be equity capital raising in the near-term,” Sharekhan said.
Axis Securities
The brokerage said SBI’s Advances and Deposits growth could remain healthy in Q1 FY25 with credit-to-deposit (C-D) ratio staying broadly stable Q-o-Q.
NII growth could be soft (up 8.7 per cent Y-o-Y/1.5 per cent Q-o-Q) at Rs 42,300 crore, with NIMs likely compressing marginally.
Opex ratios may remain under control, with PPOP growth expected to stay flat Y-o-Y at Rs 25,556 crore.
Key monitorables would be comments on capital adequacy, and outlook on Loan book growth and return ratios, Axis Securities said.
