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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to announce the results of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Friday. The MPC will convene to assess the benchmark interest rate and discuss the future economic direction for India. The meeting, chaired by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, was originally scheduled for December 4-6, 2024. The central bank last raised the repo rate in February 2023 and has maintained the key rates unchanged since then.
The MPC’s decision will be announced at approximately 10 am on Friday. For official updates, including press releases, meeting minutes, and related documents, visit the RBI’s official website. Key announcements will also be shared on the RBI’s social media platforms, including X and LinkedIn.
In the last MPC meeting, held from October 7-9, the committee decided to keep the benchmark interest rate at 6.5 per cent, marking the tenth consecutive meeting with no change in rates. Experts anticipate that the RBI will maintain the same stance on rates in this upcoming meeting as well.
However, Nomura predicts a 25 basis point repo rate cut by the RBI in this Monetary Policy Committee meeting, as outlined in its latest report. If correct, this would lower the benchmark repo rate to 6.25 per cent.
While 42 out of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate no change, Nomura assigns a 75 per cent probability to its forecast, reflecting strong confidence in a move toward rate easing. Additionally, the brokerage expects a total of 100 basis points in rate cuts by mid-2025, which would bring the repo rate down to 5.50 per cent.
Nomura’s expectation of a rate cut is driven by a significant slowdown in India’s GDP growth and a subdued inflation outlook. The country’s GDP growth for the second quarter of this fiscal year dropped to 5.4 per cent year-on-year, down from 6.7 per cent in the first quarter, indicating a notable decline in private demand.
