Maharashtra Elections 2024: The Maharashtra assembly elections 2024 marked the first state polls since the Shiv Sena split in 2022. While the Shiv Sena faction led by Eknath Shinde looks set to win 57 of the 81 seats (strike rate of 70%) it contested, the Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray grouping is headed for a score of 20 out of 95 (21%).
The ruling Mahayuti alliance of Maharashtra has described the verdict as the public’s vote recognising the Shinde-led faction as the true Shiv Sena, as opposed to the UBT.
Shinde had parted ways with Uddhav Thackeray, along with several legislators, in 2022 to protest against his decision to ally with arch-rival Congress. The CM had described the alliance as inimical to the principles of founder Balasaheb Thackeray. While Uddhav projected his 2019 decision to split from the BJP and ally with the Congress as the evolution of the Sena, Shinde declared it an “unnatural alliance”. Shinde’s faction was subsequently recognised as the original Shiv Sena by the Election Commission.
After the split, Shinde joined hands with the BJP, and took the reins of the state as chief minister. Now, after the fresh results, Shinde is not only among the claimants for the chief minister’s chair — but also the mantle of the Shiv Sena for Maharashtra’s voters.
As he declared after the results on Saturday, “This is the victory of the ideology of Hindu Hridaysamrat Shiv Sena chief Balasaheb Thackeray and Dharmaveer Anand Dighesaheb…”
Shinde & Shiv Sena
Split on the possibility of Shinde returning as CM in the new government — owing to the BJP’s performance (it looks set to win 133 of 149 seats contested, strike rate of 89%) — political observers are unanimous in their assessment that he has cemented his position as Sena leader in this election.
Political columnist Sayantan Ghosh said while former CM Devendra Fadnavis of the BJP is the “standout figure” of the election, Shinde’s importance “cannot be underestimated”.
“His contributions to the Mahayuti campaign were instrumental in consolidating the alliance’s reach, particularly at the grassroots level. Despite the BJP’s dominant position, Shinde and his faction will remain valuable allies for their localised influence and ability to mobilise critical voter bases,” he added.
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Political commentator Amitabh Tiwari suggested that the results reinforced Shinde’s importance for the Mahayuti. “Shinde can still be CM… It will be difficult to remove him after this performance,” he added, referring to reports of questions within the coalition on whom to crown CM.
Tiwari pointed out that the Shinde Shiv Sena had got more seats than the three players of the rival Maha Vikas Aghadi — Sena UBT, Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (SharadchandraPawar) — combined”.
The outcome, he added, constituted an existential threat for the Sena and NCP factions led by Uddhav and Sharad Pawar, respectively, going so far as to say that Maharashtra “could return to 4 parties from the current 6”.
Senior journalist Lakshmana Venkat Kuchi said the results allowed Eknath Shinde to “lay claim to be the original Shiv Sena, carrying on the legacy of Bal Thackeray, going by the popular vote he had secured”.
“But will his victory… be enough to continue as the CM? It is extremely doubtful — at best, he can be accommodated as a deputy chief minister to a BJP nominee,” he added.
Both the NCP and Shiv Sena constituents in the Mahayuti had “no other option than to follow the diktats of the elder brother (BJP)”.
“But, to be fair, the Shiv Sena played its own brand of politics and annoyed its alliance partner that swore revenge — and managed to cut Uddhav Thackeray and his party out of electoral and political relevance for the time being,” he added. “And it will be a very long and difficult uphill battle for Uddhav Thackeray to get powerful enough to challenge the BJP and his own party’s breakaway faction.”
Ghosh agreed. “The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) faces significant introspection. Even before the split, Uddhav Thackeray’s undivided Shiv Sena struggled in successive elections, signalling deeper challenges within the party’s structure and strategy,” he said. “Thackeray’s inability to galvanise public support for the MVA raises questions about his leadership and his capacity to carry forward Balasaheb Thackeray’s legacy.”
