The Indian equity markets have shown resilience throughout most of 2024, overcoming various challenges such as persistent inflation, the weaker-than-expected second quarter of financial year 2025 earnings, the outcomes of the general elections, FII outflows, and geopolitical uncertainty.
Sharing his take, Sarvjeet Singh Virk, Co-founder and MD of Shoonya by Finvasia, told ABP Live, “Despite facing selling pressure towards the end of 2024 due to global economic uncertainties, concerns about the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and geopolitical tensions, the Indian stock market has delivered a strong overall performance. Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty surged 11.66 per cent and 12.23 per cent, respectively, from January 1 to December 17, 2024.”
Singh shared that a key highlight has been the increase in market participation. According to the Economic Survey 2023-24, the number of unique tax IDs registered on the NSE rose from 2.7 crores in FY19 to 9.2 crores in FY24 – a jump of 6.5 crores, or approximately 240.74 per cent. This surge reflects growing investor confidence and financial inclusion.
“Several factors contributed to this positive momentum. India’s robust domestic economy, driven by a growing middle class, rising disposable incomes, and government initiatives like ‘Make in India,’ boosted corporate earnings. Favourable global factors also played a role, with India emerging as a resilient growth destination, attracting significant foreign investments. The gross inward FDI in the first quarter of FY 2024-25 (April-June 2024) surged by 26.4 per cent year-on-year to $ 22.5 billion. Additionally, government reforms focused on ease of doing business, infrastructure development, and structural changes created a business-friendly environment,” he added.
Looking Ahead: Nifty In 2025
However, the recent downtrend has prompted several brokerages to revise their 2025 targets, with most experts now projecting the Nifty to fall within the 25,000-28,000 range by next year.
ICICI Direct has projected the Nifty 50 to reach 28,800 by 2025. The brokerage highlighted, “In the journey of Nifty @ 50,000 by CY30, Nifty has achieved the milestone of 24,800 for CY24. After a volatile H2CY24, our traditional as well as statistical analysis depicts that the stage has been set to embark upon the next up move towards 28,800 levels in CY25 while key support thresholds are placed at 22,000.”
Giving his outlook on what to look forward to in 2024, Singh said, “As we enter 2025, India’s long-term growth prospects remain promising. 2025 is expected to be a promising year for the Indian stock market. Sectors like technology, healthcare, renewable energy, financial services, and infrastructure will likely outperform. With the IPO craze amongst both – startups and investors – you can expect some excitement here as well.”
“Like I always say, the stock market should not be looked at as a quick money-making means but from a long-term point of view. A disciplined, long-term investment approach will allow investors to benefit from India’s growth story,” he opined.
Goldman Sachs On Indian Stock Market Outlook For 2025
Global brokerage Goldman Sachs has projected that the Nifty 50 will reach 27,000 by the end of 2025. This projection is supported by earnings growth estimates of 13 per cent and 16 per cent over the next two years.
The Nifty 50 previously reached a record high of 26,277 in September 2024 but has since declined by 10 per cent.
Goldman Sachs anticipates Indian markets will remain range-bound over the next three months, with a near-term target of 24,000 before a back-loaded recovery as growth picks up. The brokerage noted, “While Indian stock markets currently exhibit external immunity, there is a cyclical slowdown in domestic growth. Weak earnings coupled with high valuations are expected to keep the markets range-bound in the near term.”
Despite this cautious outlook, the firm remains optimistic about a recovery in the latter half of 2025, driven by stronger GDP growth and improving corporate earnings.
Jefferies Outlook On Nifty50
Brokerage firm Jefferies has set a cautious target of 26,600 for the Nifty 50 index in 2025, suggesting a potential upside of 10 per cent from current levels. Jefferies highlighted that the one-year forward price-to-earnings multiple for the Nifty is currently above its five-year average, which is in line with expected earnings growth.
